The human population has been a young one for most of its history: high fertility rates and short lifespans mean children have accounted for a large share of the population. But the world is ageing: there are now more people older than 64 than younger than 5 years old. This marks a historic demographic change.”
Source:https://ourworldindata.org/population-aged-65-outnumber-children
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The above thought-provoking article reveals that, as of 2018, the population of human beings who are 65 and older has now surpassed those under 5 for the first time ever.
How the Earth’s Population Is Forecast to Age
We are entering unknown population dynamics for humanity.
And these two age groups’ growth rates will continue in opposite directions.
In the United States and much of the developed world, these trends are way ahead of the world and are speeding up (see chart below).
Reason being, people are living longer with more advanced research, medicine and technology…
And on the flip side, low fertility rates and couples wanting to save money are the main reasons for a low birthrate.
So if we just do some simple maths…
![How to Avoid Poverty In Retirement](/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/graph-of-population-growth.png)
We can easily see that these secular trends will naturally result in more people needing very expensive care and medical attention… but less people in the workforce. Who will pay?
Economically, this flip has the makings of a disaster.
First prediction? State pensions are likely to become history or meaningfully curtailed (already happening through inflation and financial repression)…and we would wager sooner rather than later.
Second prediction? State healthcare waiting lists are going to continue to lengthen…and private medical care costs will continue to increase rapidly (supply/demand imbalance).
Third prediction? Asset classes’ historic returns may shift significantly:
“There are 73 million baby boomers in the United States. By 2030, this entire generation will be age 65 or older as roughly 10,000 boomers are reaching this standard retirement age on a daily basis. In the year 2000, just 12% of the U.S. population was over the age of 65. By 2030, that number will nearly double to more than 20%.
The surge of baby boomer retirees will also present challenges for the financial markets. The baby boomers own the bulk of stocks in this country…this fact troubles many people, who worry that once baby boomers go to sell their stocks en masse, the market will crash.”
Source: https://fortune.com/2020/01/23/retiring-baby-boomers-stock-market-crash/
How to Avoid Poverty In Retirement
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